DONEGAL drivers are forecast to be among the most likely in Ireland to be stung by a speed van or safety camera in 2026, according to new research.
New research has mapped out the counties where drivers have the shortest odds of being stung by a speed van or safety camera in 2026, now that hundreds of new safety camera zones are live from January.
Data was gathered via annualised Garda camera detected speeding notices from January to September 2025 to estimate a 2026 run rate, then normalised against CSO vehicles under licence to express the results as one in X registered vehicles.
Casino.org Ireland has modelled where drivers are most likely to pick up a camera detected speeding notice in 2026, using Garda camera detected speeding notice data and the number of vehicles registered locally. The result is an odds style county ranking that shows where the risk is highest this year if the current pace continues.
Mayo is predicted to be Ireland’s number one speed camera fine risk county in 2026. The equivalent of around one in seven registered vehicles is forecast to receive a camera detected speeding notice over the year. In simple terms, Mayo drivers are facing Ireland’s shortest odds of being stung by a speed camera in 2026.
Across the country, the model suggests the equivalent of around one in 20 registered vehicles could receive a camera detected speeding notice in 2026.
Top 10 counties most likely to get a camera speeding notice in 2026:
- Mayo, about 1 in 7
- Roscommon, about 1 in 7
- Longford, about 1 in 7
- Donegal, about 1 in 12
- Kildare, about 1 in 13
- Carlow, about 1 in 13
- Waterford, about 1 in 13
- Kilkenny, about 1 in 13
- Tipperary, about 1 in 15
- Clare, about 1 in 15
Kerry ranks as the county with the lowest predicted camera speeding notice rate in 2026, at roughly 1 in 56 registered vehicles.
Bottom five:
1. Kerry, about 1 in 56
2. Galway, about 1 in 35
3. Dublin, about 1 in 34
4. Cork, about 1 in 31
5. Offaly, about 1 in 31
FULL COUNTY BY COUNTY 2026 FORECAST (camera detected speeding notices)
Rank County 2026 forecast Roughly
1 Mayo 14.4% 1 in 7
2 Roscommon 14.4% 1 in 7
3 Longford 14.4% 1 in 7
4 Donegal 8.5% 1 in 12
5 Kildare 7.5% 1 in 13
6 Carlow 7.5% 1 in 13
7 Waterford 7.5% 1 in 13
8 Kilkenny 7.5% 1 in 13
9 Tipperary 6.7% 1 in 15
10 Clare 6.7% 1 in 15
11 Limerick 6.1% 1 in 16
12 Westmeath 5.3% 1 in 19
13 Meath 5.3% 1 in 19
14 Louth 4.2% 1 in 24
15 Cavan 4.2% 1 in 24
16 Monaghan 4.2% 1 in 24
17 Sligo 3.9% 1 in 26
18 Leitrim 3.9% 1 in 26
19 Wexford 3.7% 1 in 27
20 Wicklow 3.7% 1 in 27
21 Laois 3.2% 1 in 31
22 Offaly 3.2% 1 in 31
23 Cork 3.2% 1 in 31
24 Dublin 2.9% 1 in 34
25 Galway 2.9% 1 in 35
26 Kerry 1.8% 1 in 56
METHODOLOGY:
Casino.org Ireland annualised Garda camera detected speeding notices from January to September 2025 to estimate a 2026 run rate, then normalised against CSO vehicles under licence to express the result as one in X registered vehicles. Where Garda publish speeding notice totals across multi county policing areas, counties within those areas share the same underlying rate. For more information, or to request county specific breakdowns and extra context, please get in touch and we can provide additional details and quotes.
